- Flights are becoming increasingly bumpier, and this trend is not merely anecdotal—it’s supported by growing scientific evidence. The primary reason behind this increase in turbulence is climate change, particularly the warming of the Earth’s atmosphere, which affects the behavior of air currents at high altitudes. This leads to stronger, more chaotic jet streams and the intensification of a specific type of turbulence known as clear-air turbulence (CAT)—the most dangerous form of turbulence because it occurs in cloudless skies, making it virtually undetectable to pilots and radar systems.
- At cruising altitudes—typically between 30,000 and 40,000 feet—airplanes rely on relatively stable atmospheric conditions. However, the jet streams, which are fast-flowing air currents that guide weather patterns and affect flight routes, are becoming increasingly erratic due to global warming. As greenhouse gas emissions trap more heat in the atmosphere, the temperature gradient between the equator and the poles changes, disrupting the stability of these air currents. This instability generates pockets of fast-moving, swirling air—conditions ripe for turbulence.
- Research studies, including those conducted by meteorologists and climate scientists, indicate that the frequency and intensity of severe clear-air turbulence could increase significantly in the coming decades. One study led by researchers at the University of Reading in the UK found that CAT over the North Atlantic—one of the busiest transatlantic flight routes—has already increased and could become two to three times more common by mid-century if carbon emissions continue unabated.
- While turbulence is a normal and safe part of flying, it is becoming more frequent and unpredictable, raising operational and safety concerns. Passengers may experience more discomfort, injuries from sudden jolts (especially if seatbelts aren’t fastened), or anxiety from prolonged episodes of turbulence. For airlines, more turbulence means increased fuel consumption (as pilots reroute to avoid rough patches), delays, aircraft wear and tear, and higher maintenance costs.
- Modern aircraft are designed to withstand strong turbulence, and pilots are trained to handle it, but the unpredictability of clear-air turbulence makes it challenging to avoid. Airlines are increasingly relying on advanced weather models, satellite data, and pilot reports to forecast turbulence zones more accurately. Some are even investing in real-time turbulence detection technologies to improve flight safety and comfort.
